REFRESHER: Here’s Who Gets Slammed If Greece Restructures

sarkozy, carla bruni, 122109

The latest news on Greece is that it may be considering a euro exit, with German leaders suggesting the country will need a debt restructuring either way.

Germany may be trying to expedite a debt restructuring for Greece by planting the story, but it does seem we are moving with great speed toward that reality.

The countries, banks, and firms exposed a Greek debt restructuring are numerous. It’s time you got up to speed.

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[slide
permalink=”japanese-banks-hold-500-million-in-greek-debt-1″
title=”Japanese banks hold $500 million in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
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[slide
permalink=”spanish-banks-hold-600-million-in-greek-debt-2″
title=”Spanish banks hold $600 million in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
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[slide
permalink=”us-banks-hold-18-billion-in-greek-debt-3″
title=”U.S. banks hold $1.8 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
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[slide
permalink=”italian-banks-hold-26-billion-in-greek-debt-4″
title=”Italian banks hold $2.6 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
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[slide
permalink=”uk-banks-hold-32-billion-in-greek-debt-5″
title=”UK banks hold $3.2 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4cdad92c4bd7c80e2a010000″
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[slide
permalink=”french-banks-hold-198-billion-in-greek-debt-6″
title=”French banks hold $19.8 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements

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[slide
permalink=”german-banks-hold-263-billion-in-greek-debt-7″
title=”German banks hold $26.3 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4d88a2c6cadcbb9304060000″
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[slide
permalink=”other-eurozone-countries-hold-157-billion-in-greek-debt-8″
title=”Other Eurozone countries hold $15.7 billion in Greek debt”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4cec022d49e2ae264b030000″
caption=””
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[slide
permalink=”banks-in-europe-have-been-working-to-cut-their-exposures-9″
title=”Banks in Europe have been working to cut their exposures.”
content=”Source: Bank for International Settlements
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[slide
permalink=”if-a-restructuring-does-occur-the-risk-trade-will-be-clobbered-10″
title=”If a restructuring does occur, the risk trade will be clobbered.”
content=”JP Morgan: There will be a flight to US treasuries and yields will fall there as a result of renewed risk aversion. This will widen spreads on high grade corporate bonds as a result.”
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4ce5910649e2aea722020000″
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[slide
permalink=”if-the-imf-has-to-step-in-with-more-cash-other-bailouts-could-be-endangered-11″
title=”If the IMF has to step in with more cash, other bailouts could be endangered.”
content=”Wells Fargo: If IMF has to act on Greece and its neighbours, particularly Spain, its could be hindered in acting in other crisis around the world as it will use up too much of its capital.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”insurance-several-insurance-companies-have-the-potential-for-contagion-risk-12″
title=”Insurance: Several insurance companies have the potential for contagion risk”
content=”Morgan Stanley: There are only a few businesses heavily exposed to one of Greece, Spain, or Portugal, but they include MapFre and Fortis.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”insurance-fortis-has-significant-exposure-to-greece-portugal-and-italy-13″
title=”Insurance: Fortis has significant exposure to Greece, Portugal, and Italy”
content=”Morgan Stanley: 39% of Fortis’ tangible book value is exposed in Greece, 25% in Portugal, and 69% in Italy.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”insurance-potential-contagion-risks-for-giants-14″
title=”Insurance: Potential contagion risks for giants”
content=”Morgan Stanley: While not over exposed to Greece or any of the PIIGs, several of the insurance giants have positions in each country which could become difficult if crisis was to spread throughout the debt troubled states after a Greek default or rescue. This is, however, unlikely.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”other-countries-will-have-a-much-harder-time-entering-the-euro-15″
title=”Other countries will have a much harder time entering the Euro.”
content=”Morgan Stanley: The Greek crisis will make the EMU much more concerned about who they let into the Euro zone in the future. They will start to check more economic criteria, such as external imbalances and budget positions.”
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4afd70480000000000f9cdd0″
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[slide
permalink=”ecb-rate-hike-cycle-may-be-stalled-16″
title=”ECB: Rate hike cycle may be stalled”
content=”The ECB’s current round of rate hike, intended to curb inflationary pressures on the eurozone, may have to be halted if a Greek restructuring damages the continent’s banking system.”
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[slide
permalink=”bulgaria-and-romania-will-get-slammed-by-a-pullback-in-greek-lending-17″
title=”Bulgaria and Romania will get slammed by a pullback in Greek lending.”
content=”Morgan Stanley: Bulgaria and Romania rely on Greek banks for a large amount of lending, much of which will be cut back in a Greek collapse due to a reliance on government loans. Reliance will shift towards local deposits as a source of lending, but these economies are struggling somewhat themselves.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”macedonia-and-albania-will-be-hit-too-18″
title=”Macedonia, and Albania will be hit too”
content=”Morgan Stanley: When the Greek economy slides, foreign workers from Albania and Bulgaria may lose jobs and stop sending home remittances. Also, FDI to Macedonia (7% of its GDP) and Bulgaria (8% of GDP) will decrease.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”extreme-tail-risk-complete-greek-bank-retrenchment-crushes-central-eastern-europe-19″
title=”Extreme Tail Risk: Complete Greek Bank retrenchment crushes Central Eastern Europe”
content=”Morgan Stanley: Extreme tail risk scenario points to complete retrenchment by Greek banks from all Central Eastern European markets which results in their loan books not being rolled over to their local subsidiaries.

Could spark a credit crisis in countries like Romania and Bulgaria, where 25% and 45% of the respective country’s loans come from.

Note: Data from 2010.
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[slide
permalink=”think-greece-is-the-big-problem-20″
title=”Think Greece is the big problem?”
content=”Have a look at what could go wrong in Spain >
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