Overall, we still feel fairly confident that the market is being driven by fundamentals (econ data, earnings or whatnot) but on a day to day basis, it’s a bit depressing what’s really driving the movements of the market.
Stuff that in the past would never have been on the radar of traders or investors is now causing billions in market cap changes in the matter of minutes.
The market has been fairly flattish/meh today, but there are some interesting moves.
So check this out.
Here’s the SPY ETF, and the vertical line is at 12:45
The market had a bit of a tumble, and then several minutes later, after popping a little bit, dumped significantly more.
Right around then, between 12:45 and 1 PM ET, a poll started filtering into the market that showed the left-wing SYRIZA party leading in the next round of Greek voting.
This tweets from the pseudonymous @pawelmorski was the first mention of it, though it became clear that many people became aware of it over the following hour as the market fell.
After that news filtered out, the market continued selling until around 2:15 PM ET.
What happened at 2:15 PM?
You guessed it, another poll, except this time it showed that SYRIZA (the left wing party which the market is scared of) does not hold a commanding lead at all, and that the pro-euro, pro-reform conservative New Democracy party is tied for first.
Of course, it’s not clear that this is necessarily “good” since we have no idea how Greece will form another government after such a split election, and ultimately these are modest moves that don’t effect long-term investors.
But the fact that the world’s biggest financial market is hanging on these polls is remarkable (and somewhat depressing).