Greek Default Imminent: Eurozone Crisis Escalates, Fear Spreads

1. Greek default now appears to be imminent and the inevitable is happening in regard to the Eurozone given that the Germans hold the trump cards; 

2. Key sources at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Bundestag’s finance committee in Berlin suggest feverish preparations underway to prepare for Greek default; 

3. We have warned about this step-by-step Eurozone break-up scenario for the last several years, since before the start of the global financial crisis in 2007;

4. Monetary union without fiscal union was always going to be a recipe for Eurozone chaos which is now manifest in the bond markets; 

5. While the focus is on dilating bond yields, the Eurozone crisis is likely to unfold dramatically with unanticipated consequences for many European banks as:

  a. both confidence-in-the-market and share prices decline;

  b. tier-1 capital ratios erode; and 

  c. non-performing loans continue to escalate;

6. As several European banks arrive at the brink of failure simultaneously they are likely to be left with no choice other than to:

  a. merge with each other;

  b. break up and be sold in parts; or 

  c. receive capital injections from their own government to:

     i. nationalise;

     ii. re-capitalise; or 

     iii. shore up their reserves;

7. Each government is going to have to fall back on its own national resources which may or may not be sufficient for the losses incurred in their banking system with trans-national exposures; 

8. In the meantime, interbank lending and trading between financial counterparties may demonstrate freezing-up similar to the aftermath of:

  a. the Lehman Brothers collapse in New York on September 15th, 2008; or 

  b. the Rothschild-owned Creditanstalt bank collapse in Vienna on May 11th, 1931;

both of which exacerbated the global financial crisis at the time and ultimately set off a “nuclear-chain-reaction” of events that led to multiple financial institution failures and near-failures as ripples cascaded;

9. The mi2g Intelligence Unit and ATCA 5000 Research and Analysis Wing’s high level sources confirm a Eurozone crisis is now in the making triggered by a Greek default not just from within European capitals but also American and Asian key capitals; and 

10. More critical updates are arriving by the hour as financial fears in regard to the viability of the Eurozone and key European banks continue to spread.

A complex “Eurozone Crisis” mosaic is now forming as our super-computing analytics and risk visualisation capability allows us to crunch the data and intelligence arriving in real time and feed the outcomes into different risk scenarios. If you or your organisation come across any extraordinary intelligence nugget, triangulated by credible sources, to complement our Eurozone risk analysis please let us know.

NOW WATCH: Briefing videos

Business Insider Emails & Alerts

Site highlights each day to your inbox.

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.