Forget The Downgrades, There’s A Much Scarier Turn Of Events Taking Place In Europe


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S&P’s big Eurozone ratings downgrades make for some good conversation, but in reality, there’s a good chance they won’t change very much. Perhaps the downgrade of France will impinge on EFSF funding, but at this point, people have been bearish on the idea that the EFSF will really be what saves Europe.What got overshadowed yesterday is the fact that the negotiations between Greece and its creditors have broken down.

According to FT, the talks are due to resume on Wednesday, but the bottom line is that Greece is not close to a restructuring deal, and without a deal, a default is a good possibility.

The FT’s opening paragraphs lay it out starkly:

Talks over Greece’s debt restructuring broke down on Friday, an unexpected blow that makes it increasingly likely that Athens will become the first government of a developed country in more than 60 years to suffer a full-scale default on its debt.

The deadline is sometime in March, which means there’s still time, but Europe could be looking at its first “event” of the whole crisis very soon.