This is why any prediction of an imminent “Grexit” is problematic.Nobody in Greece wants to leave.
Megan Greene — a top economist at Nouriel Roubini’s shop — has a great ‘Note from Athens’ report on the current mood in Greece.
People are angry as hell at everyone. But leave? Not a popular idea.
Despite the clear sense of despair and anger in Greece, politicians and members of the public continue to think that the alternative—default and EZ exit—would be even worse. A top official from New Democracy, the most popular party according to recent opinion polls and the party likely to lead a coalition government following upcoming elections in April, waxed at length about how much trouble Greece would be in if it exited the EZ. He highlighted that Greece has few export industries it could rely on to grow its way out of the crisis even if it devalued its currency. He conceded there is tourism, but argued that any profits from shipping are kept out of the country and green energy is still but a mere pipe dream as an export industry for Greece. Given that Greece is not self-sustaining in agriculture, he suggested that a devaluation accompanied by hyperinflation would result in a starving population, and that the resulting civil unrest would destabilize the entire Balkan region. These arguments were reiterated by Pasok politicians I met, as well as by representatives from prime minister Papademos’ office.
Among the increasingly popular fringe left- and right-wing parties, the only party actually advocating a EZ exit is the communist party, or KKE. The KKE will have just over 10% of the vote in the election in April according to most estimates and refuses to cooperate with any other parties in a coalition. For now, the rest of the political establishment advocates doing whatever it takes to remain in the EZ.
The violent protests in Syntagma Square two weeks ago indicate that there is growing resentment among the Greek public towards the conditions demanded by the troika. Overwhelmingly, however, most Greeks express desperation to stay in the EZ. This is reflected in recent opinion polls: according to a poll conducted in February for Skai TV and Kathimerini, 70% of respondents said a EZ exit and return to the drachma would make Greece’s situation worse and 61% said they viewed the euro favourably.
In addition to concerns about what would happen to their savings and what sort of social unrest would be stoked if Greece exited the EZ, most Greeks are cynical about how a new, independent central bank would operate.
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