GREECE: This Is What Happens Next

antonis samaras greece

Photo: AP/Petros Giannakouris

From SocGen’s Michala Marcussen, a very good summation of what happened in the election today, and what happens now.As we head to press, the results of the Greek election point to a fragmented outcome. With over 40% of the nationwide vote counted, the Conservative New Democracy come in top place with just over 20% of the vote, yielding a predicted 112 of 300 seats in Parliament. Pasok ranks in third with a predicted 43 seats.

The other five parties predicted to win seats in Parliament oppose the EU/IMF austerity program to varying degrees. Top of the list is the radical left Syriza, in second with a predicted 49 seats, followed by the Independents (right-wing) with 32 seats, Communists with 25 seats, far-right Golden Dawn with 21 seats and Democratic Left with 18 seats. A number of smaller parties are not at this point above the 3% limit.

With this outcome, New Democracy will be given the first shot at forming a government; if they fail the opportunity will be passed to Syriza, and so on. If no one succeeds, new elections will then be held. Failure to secure a political majority to meet the terms of the second Greek programme could see the country inch towards euro exit. This would in our opinion be seen as a negative event, even beyond Greece’s borders.

It sounds like the jockeying over the next few days will be even more suspenseful than the vote itself.

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