The big story of the week? Does Greece finally get a bailout check.SocGen’s Michala Marcusen has the topic up top as her top topic of the week:
GREECE TAKE 3 Monday’s Eurogroup will see a third attempt at reaching agreement on what will de facto amount to the third financial assistance programme for Greece. While a German press report this weekend suggested that some form of “conditional” forgiveness could be on the cards as of 2015, the official position out of Berlin is that official sector debt forgiveness is not on the menu. To reach debt sustainability, a cocktail of measures is on the table, including lower interest rates on Greek debt, debt buybacks and a compromise with the IMF to extend the target date for debt at 120% of GDP to 2022 from 2022. MARKET ISSUES: While there is a good chance that an agreement is reached on Monday, we consider it unlikely that this will make Greek public finances sustainable on anything but paper. The hope is no doubt that the Greek issue will not need to be revisited until after the German election due in autumn 2013.
We’ll be all over this tomorrow.
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