BP: The Great American Shale Boom Has At Least Another Decade Before It Peaks

BP is out with its annual energy outlook.

The big news: the U.S.is “on a path to achieve energy self-sufficiency.”

BP does not define what this means, and as we’ve said before, full U.S. energy independence is a myth — we just consume too much of it. We would only be energy independent if imports fell to zero, which they’re not.

But, BP also says the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by around 2018.

The reason: the Great American Shale Boom, as measured by supply, won’t peak until after 2020 for oil, and after 2035 for gas. BP has actually revised its North American oil and natural gas supply outlook upward by 7% due to “evolving expectations for shale gas/tight oil plays.”

Here’s the chart:

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