GooglePhone Revenue Ests: $2B-$5B in Year 2/3, OpCo

It’s GooglePhone day (everyone says), and Oppenheimer analyst Sandeep Aggarwal takes the opportunity to roll out some Google Mobile revenue estimates:

  • Mobile will be Google’s biggest non-search revenue opportunity thus far.
  • Revenue of $2-$5 billion in Year 2-3, $10+ billion in Years 4/5.
  • These estimates based on revenue of $2-$4 per handset worldwide.  For perspective, Google generated $1/year per global installed PC ($6 in US) in 2002 and that number has since risen to $19 ($37 in US)
  • The larger opportunity in years 4 and 5 could come from software/application and hardware royalties.

Assuming Google successfully attracts hundreds of millions of mobile users (not a given but not unreasonable in light of Google’s worldwide dominance), Aggarwal’s per-phone assumptions seem reasonable.  This would basically require only about one incremental search and click per user per month.  An extra $2-$5 billion would increase Google’s current revenue base ($16 billion) by 15%-30%.

See Also:
GooglePhone Coming Monday?  Here’s What To Expect
GooglePhone Update
SAI Research: Google Key Metrics

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