It’s GooglePhone day (everyone says), and Oppenheimer analyst Sandeep Aggarwal takes the opportunity to roll out some Google Mobile revenue estimates:
- Mobile will be Google’s biggest non-search revenue opportunity thus far.
- Revenue of $2-$5 billion in Year 2-3, $10+ billion in Years 4/5.
- These estimates based on revenue of $2-$4 per handset worldwide. For perspective, Google generated $1/year per global installed PC ($6 in US) in 2002 and that number has since risen to $19 ($37 in US)
- The larger opportunity in years 4 and 5 could come from software/application and hardware royalties.
Assuming Google successfully attracts hundreds of millions of mobile users (not a given but not unreasonable in light of Google’s worldwide dominance), Aggarwal’s per-phone assumptions seem reasonable. This would basically require only about one incremental search and click per user per month. An extra $2-$5 billion would increase Google’s current revenue base ($16 billion) by 15%-30%.