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Helping markets today: Some good economic data in France and China.Here’s a quick overview of it from Nomura:
Today’s surprise in the industrial production figures in France means that there have now been two consecutive positive prints in industrial production month-on-month growth. Thus, we are likely to see some payback in December. That said, today’s report, together with the slight improvement in business sentiment, which was also released this morning (rising from 95 to 96 in December) has put upside risks to our current Q4 GDP forecast of -0.3% (consistent with PMI reports).
On the data front, the latest data releases from Asia reflected weakening global demand amid the ongoing euro crisis. China’s export growth for example in December slowed to 13.4% y-o-y from 13.8% in November, while import growth dropped sharply to 11.8% y-o-y from 22.1%. The latest Chinese data release supports our economists’ forecast for a sharp decline in GDP growth in Q1. Indeed, growth in imports for processing trade fell to 6.2% y-o-y in December from 11% in November, suggesting a further slowdown in exports is likely in the coming months.