Goldman's Jan Hatzius Answered 10 Questions About 2013 In January -- Here's What Really Happened

At the beginning of the year, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius offered answers for 10 big questions regarding 2013.

Today, he followed that up with what really happened.

It turns out he did quite well.

Here’s a quick rundown of his questions and his self-assessment:

  • Will the 2013 tax hike tip the economy back into recession? No.


  • Will growth pick up in second half? Yes.


  • Will capex growth accelerate? Yes.

    INCORRECT: “…We still expect acceleration but have shifted this prediction forward into 2014.”

  • Will housing continue to recovery? Yes.


  • Will unemployment rate fall quickly? No.

    INCORRECT: “…We expect the pace of decline in the unemployment rate in 2014 to remain similar to its 2013 pace, but with the drivers shifting from participation to above-trend employment growth.”

  • A profit margins going to shrink in 2013? No.


  • Will core inflation accelerate significantly? No.


  • Will there be a bond market scare over the budget deficit? No.


  • Will the federal reserve stop buying assets? No.


  • Will interest rates rise? Not much.

    UNCLEAR: “…the increase in long-term rates was bigger than our forecast at the time and in any case we should have differentiated our “not much” answer more clearly…”

That’s about 7.5 out of 10. Not bad given this crazy year. That’s why Hatzius is one of the best.

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