As it does every time there’s a big international sporting event, Goldman Sachs is out with a huge report, available to the public, analysing the World Cup, both from a perspective of the actual games and from an economic perspective.
Without wasting anyone’s time, here’s the firm’s odds for each time winning it all. As you can see, Brazil is a massive favourite, with nearly 50% chance of being champions:
Goldman also points out that it’s giving Brazil much higher odds of victory than Ladbrokes, the betting shop, implying that you should probably bet on them.
Goldman gives four reasons why Brazil is such a strong favourite:
- Brazil is the highest rated team in its index of raw team skill.
- Brazil has an excellent history in World Cup tournaments.
- Home advantage is a big predictor of success in the sport, and of course the World Cup is in Brazil.
- Home continent advantage is a big thing for Latin American teams, and no European team has ever won a World Cup in the Americas.
This chart breaks down why Goldman says Brazil has nearly a 50% shot.
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