GOLDMAN: Today's Jobs Report Is Even More Important Than Usual

Jan Hatzius

Goldman’s Jan Hatzius makes the same point about today’s jobs report that we’ve been making, that it’s a biggie.

From a note put out yesterday:

From a market perspective, Friday’s report looks even more important than usual given the increase in volatility since Chairman Bernanke’s Congressional testimony on May 22. However, payrolls are only one input into the decision whether to taper QE, and there are still three more reports to come before the September FOMC meeting. A strong report would not guarantee tapering in September, and a weak one would not preclude it. Our baseline forecast for the first reduction in purchases remains the December FOMC meeting.

As for Goldman’s call on the report:

We expect a 175,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls (with risks tilted to a weaker report) and a stable 7.5% unemployment rate (with risks tilted to a decline). As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a bit stronger than the March and April report but weaker than the 3- and 6-month moving average.

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