Goldman Slashes Q4 GDP Forecast To Just 1%

Photo: KA-BAR

The latest data has prompted Goldman to cut its Q4 GDP forecast. It now sees just 1% growth.The key points from Goldman’s Kris Dawsey:

  • We expect that the positive boost to GDP growth from inventory investment seen last quarter will not persist into Q4.
  • Weaker inventory series in the monthly business sentiment surveys point to slowing inventory accumulation, and our quarterly models suggest some payback from Q3’s inventory build.
  • Farm inventories will likely decline again in Q4 due to continued effects from the Midwest drought earlier this year.
  • As a result of our analysis, we have cut our tracking estimate of Q4 real GDP growth from 1.3% to 1.0%.

The firm based its adjustment on various surveys, including the recent ISM and various regional Fed surveys.

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