Goldman Sachs’ Chris Mischaikow is out with a review of the last six months of big moves in equity, currency, and bond markets.
And over the last six months, the biggest driver of moves in the stock market has been, well, nothing obvious.
Mischaikow writes that between August and January, “Moves in equities often had no particular driver, but rather moved with concerns over global growth or with the energy sector as oil prices fell.”
Here’s Mischaikow’s bigger breakdown:
Central banks received a fair amount of attention, with the December FOMC announcement being interpreted by equity markets as dovish and pushing stocks higher. Stocks also rose on the September FOMC meeting minutes and in response to an October 21 Reuters article that cited anonymous sources within the European Central Bank (ECB) on the possibility of a potential QE program.
OPEC cut its forecast for global demand for its oil on December 10 to levels below its estimate of supply. This forecasted imbalance stoked global growth concerns and drove equity prices down. The mix of global growth concerns and falling oil prices would result in substantial one-day declines, albeit not necessarily with an immediate driver, on October 9, October 13, December 12, and January 5. The one date bucking this trend was January 8, when the S&P 500 rose 1.79% with no major releases.
Here’s Goldman’s table, confirming what so many think about the when’s, why’s, and how’s of stock market moves: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯