Friday is jobs day in America.
Economists forecast that the economy added 226,000 jobs in May, down from 223,000 in April, according to Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.4%.
In a note Wednesday, Goldman Sachs’ Kris Dawsey breaks down the firm’s expectations for the jobs report, and why it could swing either way.
Here’s the one reason why Goldman says it could beat forecasts:
- The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims between the April and May reference periods for the jobs report fell by 19,000.
And here’s why it could miss:
- The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak. Those include the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI, and the ISM services report.
- Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag. That’s even though the oil rig count is slowly balancing out.
- The consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years. Specifically, the average consensus error in May over the past five years has been -56,000.
- Weather, again. Warmer weather likely pushed up the jobs number in April after a dismal March, but this may have borrowed from jobs gains in May. And, it was unusually wet in Texas and other parts of the country.
On Wednesday, the ADP report showed that private payrolls expanded by 201,000 in May, beating forecasts by 1,000.