Goldman Sachs Just Published Its Bullish Forecast For Friday's Jobs Report

All eyes will be on Friday’s August jobs report.

“We expect a 200k gain in nonfarm payrolls in August, modestly above consensus expectations of 180k and in line with the 6- and 12-month moving averages,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ David Mericle in a note blasted to clients. “We expect that the unemployment rate held steady at 7.4% after a two-tenths decline in July, with some risk of a further decline to 7.3%.”

Mericle points to five reasons why he thinks it’ll be strong. We paraphrase:

  • Jobless claims trended down into the payrolls survey week.
  • The employment component of the ISM services, Empire State, Richmond Fed, Kansas City Fed, and Dallas Fed surveys improved in August.
  • The job availability component of the consumer confidence report improved in August.
  • Job ads have been climbing.
  • Beige Book anecdotes suggested the sequester was having little impact on private sector jobs.

The report comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. We’ll cover it live at

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