Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Black Friday is notorious for fights amongst shoppers. In fact, we’ve already heard reports of a woman in L.A. who used pepper spray to prevent people from buying merchandise she wanted. That retail frenzy is likely to go crazier this year as more consumers are leaning towards Black Friday sales this year, according to an annual Goldman Sachs survey. 34% expect to shop on Black Friday this year, up from 31% a year ago. And 51% of the 1,000 polled expect to spend the same amount on gifts this holiday season compared to last year, while 11% expect to spend more. 63% of respondents plan on giving gift cards, while 56% plan on giving clothing.
Gift cards and jewelry are expected to gain significant “gift wallet share”, which is the percentage of total gift spending.
The “gift wallet share” for consumer electronics is up only 30 bp this year. Meanwhile, after declining 60 bp last year, the share of clothing is up 20 bp this year.
Based on the survey results, Goldman analysts Michelle Tan, Matthew J. Fassler, Adrianne Shapira and Michael Kelter believe that the TJX Companies, which include retail chains like T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and American Eagle Outfitters are poised to do well in the holidays. Goldman has buy ratings on both stocks.
TJX Companies is expected to benefit from shoppers looking for a bargain and the slight recovery in clothing gift share. Meanwhile, American Eagle is expected to be a key destination for consumers who intend on focusing less on themselves and more on gifts for the family.
Now here’s a chart from the Goldman report that shows this Holiday’s “gift wallet share”:
Photo: Goldman Sachs