GOLDMAN PRESENTS: A Roadmap For Weak First Quarter Growth

We got another bout of strong data today.

Initial claims came in well below expectations.

And housing starts came in well above expectations. Housing is the primary bullish tailwind for the US economy, so this is particularly gratifying.

That being said, the economy is not growing blazing fast just yet.

In a note out this morning, Goldman’s Shuyan Wu presents a note titled A Roadmap For Slow Growth In Q1.

Goldman expects growth of 1.5%, and although housing is expected to be a continued boost, the increase in the payroll tax, and other Washington-based headwinds will continue to weigh on things. Consumer spending, hiring, and industrial investment are all expected to be tepid.

This table shows how in almost every category, Q1 is expected to be weaker than Q4.


Photo: Goldman Sachs

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