GOLDMAN SACHS: One Simple Phenomenon Explains Why Scotland Will Probably Vote 'No'

Goldman Sachs is out with a Q&A on the Scottish independence referendum.

They point out that while the polls are narrowing, betting markets still think that NO is much more likely than yes.

How come?

It call comes down to this fact, as stated in the report:

That said, we continue to think that a ‘Yes’ vote is unlikely: we suspect that more Scots will vote for the ‘safe’ status quo in the official vote than have indicated in opinion polls — on the eve of Quebec’s independence referendum in 1995, opinion polls suggested that the ‘Yes’ vote would win 53% to 47% but it ultimately lost 49% to 51%.

This is what David Cameron et. al. have to hang their hat on. That at the last second, voters will just think it’s too much of a risk to pull the lever for NO, and that even if YES has a majority of support at the moment (which it doesn’t) then NO will win in the final counting.

All that being said, there’s no question where the momentum lies.

These charts from the report show YES clearly gathering steam heading into Thursday’s vote.

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