Goldman thinks US oil production will grow through 2016

Goldman Sachs’ weekly rig monitor is out, and based on predictions from last Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count, the firms expects oil production will nearly flatline through the end of 2015.

The falling rig count doesn’t mean production will fall right away, because there are plenty of online wells still pumping. But with oil companies drilling fewer new wells, growth of production won’t be as high. Eventually the current wells will stop producing as much crude, and production may start to fall.

Goldman doesn’t expect to see much of that this year, however.

There’s a bit of a dip expected in the middle of this year, but then production picks up again — just nowhere near the pace of growth of the past five years.

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