A new report from Goldman Sachs’s commodities research team points to an imminent oil sell-off—or at the very least, a noticeable pause in the rise of oil prices.
According to that research, oil prices generally decline amid softer U.S. economic data, and (though analysts stop short of saying it) often in a big way. And that’s just what’s happening right now.
Goldman analysts argue that a negative turn in their proprietary economic surprise indicator—US-MAP—will probably precede a drop in oil prices, just as it has in the past. And from the graph of that indicator versus WTI crude oil prices, they appear to have a point:
Photo: Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research