This shouldn’t suprise anyone: Goldman Sachs estimates that newspaper ad revenue was down 10.7% y/y in April, and from its conversations with execs at the New York Times Company (NYT), Gannett (GCI) and Scripps (SSP), it’s looking like May will bring more of the same, with national, retail and of course classified advertising all down.
On a combined basis, Goldman estimates newspaper ad revenue a the big, publicly traded newspaper companies will be down 12.3% in April and March combined.
The marketshare loss is most dramatic in classified advertising, down 20.3% in April.
Goldman says short-term trends could improve in the second half of 2008, with easier comparisons to last year, but don’t be fooled by them. The underlying ad softness will remain the same and the cost of newsprint is expected to increase 20% per ton in the second half of 2008.