Gold was an outstanding loser in 2013, falling by 30%.
However, the yellow metal has rallied by around 10% since the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, most Wall Street commodities analysts remain firmly bearish.
In a new note to clients, Goldman Sachs analysts reiterate their prediction that gold will fall to $US1,050/oz within 12 months. Here’s their one-paragraph take (emphasis added):
The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since September before a more hawkish-than-expected March FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our view transient catalysts have driven this rally: (1) a sharp slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was weather driven, (2) high Chinese credit concerns, although ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing deals if realised, and (3) escalating tensions over Ukraine. While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration. Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold prices over the next two years. Beyond the acceleration in US activity, signs of sequentially weaker Chinese gold imports could pressure prices in coming months.
Gold futures settled at $1,327 Monday. Prices would have to fall 20.8% to get to Goldman’s target.
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