January U.S. auto sales beat analyst expectations by 10.8 million units on a seasonally-adjusted-annual-selling-rate (SAAR) basis according to Goldman Sachs.
Ford and GM in particular are killing it, clobbering Toyota with 34.4% and 23.5% year over year sales growth while the Japanese automaker’s sales fell 8.7%.
Moreover, as shown below, Goldman expects substantial production increases for U.S. automakers both in 2010 (FY10E) with Ford, GM, and Chrysler ramping up output by 19 – 31%. Production growth will then continue into 2011 (FY11E). Toyota’s own-goal may have jump started a U.S. auto recovery.
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Brian Jacoby @ Goldman: Ford stated that most Toyota customers tend to cross-shop Honda; however, we believe that Ford and GM may see some sales benefit in coming months associated with the Toyota recall. We maintain our US light vehicle SAAR forecast of 12.0 and 13.0 million units in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Ford expects a US SAAR of approximately 11.5-12.5 million units in 2010, and GM revised their 2010 SAAR estimate to 11.5-12.0 million units from 11.0-12.0 million.
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(Via Goldman Sachs, Credit Research: January US Auto Sales, Brian Jacoby, CFA, 2 February 2010)