After a brief recovery, the price of oil is likely to go back down as global production ramps up.
In a new research note, Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Damien Courvalin predicts that after a couple of months of lower global production — mostly because of bad weather and a little bit due to violence — things are going to ramp up again in March, sending prices lower.
Here’s what the production picture looks like, according to the Courvalin:
Weather, violence or sanction-related supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and Iran have taken 885 kb/d off the global market in January-February relative to December. While there are risks that the violence-related disruptions extend in Libya, normal weather in Iraq could see exports recover by 300 kb/d in March with Iran potentially adding another 265 kb/d in April. All along, Russia, Brazil, Saudi and US production have continued to grow sequentially.
While demand for oil has also been strong, Courvalin expects that to level off somewhat, both because winter is coming to an end and because there have been weak manufacturing numbers out of China and India.
Goldman is predicting $US40/bbl oil over the next two quarters, with risk skewed to the upside, and $US65/bbl oil in 2016, with risk skewed to the downside.