Goldman’s Jari Stehn offers for reasons to believe in a short-term growth pickup. Here they are:
The economic dataflow has weakened notably in recent months and our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) has declined one percentage point since the fall. But we see four reasons for a pickup in the dataflow in coming months: (1) data surprises appear to have bottomed; (2) weather normalization should boost growth; (3) financial conditions remain supportive; and (4) leading indicators for capital spending have picked up. We therefore expect that activity should bounce back and continue to expect 3%+ growth for the remainder of 2014.
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