It’s jobs day tomorrow.
Goldman predicts we’ll see 200K new jobs, which is a bit above consensus.
Here are the three reasons why, from economist Sven Jari Stehn:
1. Manufacturing survey employment indices. The manufacturing ISM employment index jumped almost 6 points to 54.4 in July, the highest level since June 2012. The regional Fed surveys also point to an improvement in manufacturing employment, with gains in the Empire and Philly Fed employment indices, and no change to the Richmond employment component.
2. Consumer confidence. Household perceptions of job availability continued to improve in July. The Conference Board’s measure of the difference between respondents viewing jobs as “plentiful” vs. “hard to get” improved to -23.3, the highest level since September 2008.
3. ADP. While we have not found the ADP index to be a very reliable indicator, the 200,000 increase in ADP employment in July was also a positive sign. The report points to a pickup in construction employment growth but another weak manufacturing employment gain.
Meanwhile, here’s the most optimistic scenario for tomorrow.
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