Goldman takes on the decent non-farm payrolls report.————-
1. The September employment report was encouraging, featuring solid gains in total hours worked and in the household measure of employment. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 103k, with the private sector up 137k (both benefiting from the return of 45k striking workers), and prior months were revised up by a net 99k. Average weekly hours increased a tenth, with aggregate hours worked up 0.4% on the month.
2. The household survey posted a steady unemployment rate at 9.1%, as we expected, but the detail was “healthy” in the sense that both employment and labour force participation increased. In fact, adjusting household employment for population controls and the payroll survey definition of employment (i.e. ex agriculture, ex-self employment, etc.), the household survey showed a whopping 880,000 gain in September–the second largest in the last five years.
3. Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) shows a reading of +1.0% for September following this release GSCO