The Golden State Warriors are the overwhelming favourite to win the NBA Championship at the All-Star break and it appears as though the season is already over for 20 teams, even if most don’t know it yet.
Using Nate Silver’s 2016-17 NBA Predictions
, a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true championship contenders. The model simulates the remainder of the season 50,000 times and considers factors such as travel distance, fatigue and altitude.
According to the model, the Warriors have a whopping 56% chance to win the title. The Spurs (13%), Cavaliers (10%), and Celtics (5%) are the only other teams with a legit shot (5%+) to win it all. Only six other teams are even given a 1% chance to win the title, with the Wizards just missing the 5% cutoff. Meanwhile, the other 20 teams are at less than 1%, meaning their seasons are already over.
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