Let’s step back for a moment and consider some of the big moves we’ve seen lately.
The 10-year Treasury note has taken a real beating of late. Industrial commodities have been on fire. The US dollar has been modestly strong, gold has been nothing doing.
All the signals suggest that market participants are overwhelmingly willing to take on risk, and have little fear of downside. Gold’s (lack of a) move has been especially telling.
But it’s definitely starting to gain some life, which is consistent with either an inflationary environment or a fearful environment, neither of which is anticipated by the market right now.
Granted… this could be a totally stillborn move. But if you’re looking out for anything (anything at all) that might be cause for worry, keep this on your radar. (Chart via Waverly Advisors)
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