Here’s a helpful cheat sheet on global monetary policy, courtesy of Morgan Stanley’s Global Economics team.
As you can see, the U.S., Japan, the Euro Area, and the U.K. are way at the bottom.
Photo: Morgan Stanley
“Normally, when economies are recovering, central banks typically start to think about the exit and take the foot off the accelerator,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels. “In our view, this time is different.”
They give four reasons why they expect central banks to stay easy. We summarize:
- Global growth is slow, and unemployment is still high.
- Inflation is low.
- The Bank of Japan is being particularly aggressive, which will force other central banks to ease.
- Central banks to want bond yields to jump yet.
“We see global growth reaching close to 4% in 2H13 and in 2014,” wrote Fels. “However, twilight still rules in the near term and we expect most central banks to remain supportive or even ease further this year.”
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