Photo: Michael Gil, Flickr
The global economy is seeing a fresh round of green shoots. That’s the buzz at the moment.
It’s perfectly summarized by this paragraph from Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels from his latest Sunday Start note:
The other thing I will be watching is whether there will be more signs of green shoots in the economic data. You may remember that I pointed out the strong Korean export numbers as a first sign of hope two Sundays ago. In the meantime, exports in Germany, Taiwan and China, the whole range of monthly data in China and the US housing market and retail sales releases have surprised on the upside. So this week, all eyes will be on the German Ifo survey, US and UK 3Q GDP and the flash PMIs out of China and the euro area. Most of these should show an uptick, consistent with the green shoots theory. Yet overall, I doubt that global growth will escape from the twilight zone into daylight for quite some time to come.
Fels’ comments echo the latest from Goldman’s Jim O’Neill, whose weekend letter was devoted to the exact same thing: The growing green shoots around the world.
And O’Neill’s letter jibed with the latest measure from Goldman’s Global Leading Indicator (GLI), which is showing its first pickup in momentum all year.
Couple the global optimism, and the central bank easing with the US momentum, and you start to see why people are getting excited.