The election of Donald Trump has brought bond market vigilantes out of the woodwork.
On Tuesday, US Treasurys raced to solid gains when Trump moved ahead in Florida, but heavy selling engulfed the complex as soon as it became clear that Trump was going to be the next president of the United States. The thought process being that Trump’s tax cuts and plans for massive infrastructure spending would finally do the one thing the Fed has been unable to do, spark the return of inflation.
Sellers remained in control on Thursday, and the market was able to take a breather on Friday as it was closed in observance of Veterans Day.
However, sellers are back in charge on Monday. Heavy selling across the complex has yields higher by at least 8 basis points. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 7:15 a.m. ET:
- 2-year +7.3 bps at 98.8 bps
- 3-year +10.4 bps at 1.27%
- 5-year +11.2 bps at 1.67%
- 7-year +11.5 bps at 2.03%
- 10-year +10.2 bps at 2.25%
- 30-year +9 bps at 3.02%
Several notable developements have taken place amid Monday’s destruction. The 2-year yield crossed the 1.00% threshold for the first time since January, and the 10-year is also at levels last seen since the beginning of the year. Additionally, the 30-year yield is above 3.00% and at its highest level since early December. All of this comes as the Fed readies for its first rate hike since December 2015. Fed fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg shows an 84% probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
It’s not just the US where the bond vigilantes have surfaced. Heavy selling across Europe is having the biggest impact on Greece, where the government continues its efforts to receive debt relief from its creditors. Selling there has the benchmark 10-year yield higher by 19 bps at 7.22%. In Italy, the 10-year is up 16 bps at 2.18% as the Italian referedum draws near. On December 4, Italians will go to the polls to vote on whether or not the country should push ahead with reforms. A ‘no’ vote would lead to the end of prime minister Matteo Renzi’s career.
And in Asia, Korean yields spiked amid the fallout of the scandal that has engulfed President Park Geun-hye, who admitted to giving classified information to someone without clearance. Heavy selling in South Korea pushed the 10-year yield up 17 bps to 2.11%. Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s 10-year ended higher by 1.7 bps at -2.2 bps and is flirting with its first move above zero since February 2015.