Get Ready, Edmunds Says April Auto Sales Backslid As Manufacturers Unplugged The Promos

The feel-good March car sales won’t last says Emdunds.com:

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SANTA MONICA, Calif. — April 26, 2010 — This month’s new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 988,100 units, a 20.9 per cent increase from April 2009 and a 7.1 per cent decrease from March 2010, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.

“In March, incentives really helped boost car sales — especially since Toyota’s high-profile recalls led consumers to expect huge bargains,” observed Jessica Caldwell, Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. “In April incentives averaged nearly $200 less per vehicle industry-wide and sales fell along with incentives.”

“The economy is showing signs of recovery but consumers are still wary, so today car-shopping is largely about bargain-hunting,” commented Edmunds.com Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Anwyl. “Traditionally, summer discounts are worth waiting for but inventory may be spottier than usual this year. The next round of incentives may provide the best opportunity to pick up a great deal on a 2010 model.”

Edmunds.com analysts predict that April’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 11.2 million, down from 11.8 in March 2010.

“April’s dip shows the auto industry’s recovery will be a slow and bumpy one,” noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs in her report for AutoObserver.com. “Ultimately, though, car sales are significantly better than the 9.2 million SAAR of a year ago.”

April 2010 had 26 selling days, the same as last April 2009 (The chart below sets forth comparisons.)

chart

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.2 per cent in April 2010, down from 46.6 per cent in April 2009 and up from 43.5 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 90,800 units in April 2010, up 18.9 per cent compared to April 2009 and down 1.7 per cent from March 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 9.2 per cent for Chrysler in April 2010, down from 9.3 per cent in April 2009 and up from 8.7 per cent as in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 166,500 units in April 2010, up 25.9 per cent compared to April 2009 and down 8.3 per cent from March 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 16.8 per cent of new car sales in April 2010 for Ford, up from 16.2 per cent in April 2009 and down from 17.1 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 179,200 units in April 2010, up 4.1 per cent compared to April 2009 and down 4.7 per cent from March 2010. GM’s market share is expected to be 18.1 per cent of new vehicle sales in April 2010, down from 21.1 per cent in April 2009 and up from 17.7 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 110,200 units in April 2010, up 9.1 per cent from April 2009 and up 1.8 per cent from March 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.2 per cent in April 2010, down from 12.4 per cent in April 2009 and up from 10.2 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 80,400 units in April 2010, up 35.1 per cent from April 2009 and up 3.8 per cent from March 2010. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 8.1 per cent in April 2010, up from 7.3 per cent in April 2009 and up from 7.3 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 71,400 units in April 2010, up 51.3 per cent from April 2009 and down 25.2 per cent from March 2010. Nissan’s market share is expected to be 7.2 per cent in April 2010, up from 5.8 per cent in April 2009 and down from 9.0 per cent in March 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 167,800 units in April 2010, up 32.6 per cent from April 2009 and down 10.2 per cent from March 2010. Toyota’s market share is expected to be 17.0 per cent in April 2010, up from 15.5 per cent in April 2009 and down from 17.6 per cent in March 2010.

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