The United States women’s national team beat China 1-0 in their quarterfinal match at the Women’s World Cup, but their chances of winning the entire tournament have actually gone down, according to the latest model from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. Germany is now a heavy favourite to win it all.
The US were a slight favourite prior to the tournament and opened up a 33%-25% lead over Germany entering the knockout stage. However, Germany became the favourite prior to the quarterfinals, and that was before their win over third-ranked France.
The US has looked shaky at times and despite dominating No. 16 China, they still only scored a single goal. As a result, Silver’s model now gives Germany a 57% chance to beat the US in the semifinals and a 43% chance to win it all.
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