The big chatter these days in Europe has to do with easing up on austerity, and even, gasp, seeing some fiscal stimulus out of Germany.
Why has it taken this long?
Because it took this long for the German economy to finally start to wobble. But now there are increasing signs that it’s happening.
The number of people out of work climbed a seasonally adjusted 21,000 to 2.96 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal labour Agency said today. That’s the fourth straight monthly gain. Economists predicted an increase of 5,000, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate held at 6.9 per cent, just above a two-decade low of 6.8 per cent.
Remember, the big trend is that while Europe collapses, the German employment picture has looked absolutely fantastic throughout the crisis.
NatixisSo there’s been no impetus to change the status quo.
But if the German situation stops looking so hot, then that changes things.