The first German election results will be out at noon EDT.
Via Nomura, here’s what you need to know. Note that in the previews below, the times are European time:
Polls open at 8am and close at 6pm, with television stations ARD and ZDF releasing exit poll results at exactly 6pm. Bloomberg writes that unless the vote is very close, television networks should call the winners by 7pm, but the final result may take longer if the election is tight (as seems likely) with the “final preliminary” result usually available about midnight. Bloomberg adds that after polls close, the leaders of all the major parties will give a 45-minute joint TV interview scheduled to start at 8.15pm (broadcast by ARD and ZDF) while party leaders will meet on 23 September to decide how to proceed with coalition talks.
The polls (and their margins of error) continue to suggest that the German elections remain finely balanced between a repeat of the current CDU/CSU and FDP coalition and a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and the SPD. While the immediate focus will be on coalition building (nb: agreement for a grand coalition took just over three weeks back in September/October 2005), we highlighted earlier this week the significant pipeline of policy decisions looming after the elections: (i) the exit strategies of programme countries (where the debate will likely be even more vociferous should the AfD reach the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag), (ii) modalities around the SSM and second leg of banking union, and (iii) resumption of the debate on fiscal union. For more details, see NEMO, 16 September.
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