GERARD MINACK: 3 Words Explain Why Stocks Are No Longer Sensitive To Economic Surprises

Mario draghiREUTERS/Francois LenoirDon’t bet against Mario Draghi.

The stock market has been on an extraordinary rally since its lows in March 2009.

However, the latter part of the rally has been particularly remarkable. Despite ongoing economic hiccups and political turmoil around the world, the last time we saw a 10%+ correction was back in the summer of 2011.

It seems like neither good nor bad economic news can touch this bull run.


“I think the markets lost their sensitivity because of 3 words: ‘whatever it takes,'” said market strategist Gerard Minack to Business Insider. “We no longer worry that macro weakness will cue more systemic stress.”

Back in July 26, 2012, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” Many saw this as a key turning point for monetary policy in the euro zone.

And this more or less appears to be the mentality adopted by the world’s major central banks as they work to stimulate their local economies.

“In short, markets think we’re back to normal,” said Minack. “I don’t think we are, but that’s another story.”

Minack told us this when we asked him for what he considered to be the most important chart in the world.

He sent us this chart overlaying the forward price-earnings ratio of developed markets with the economic surprise index of the G10 economies. It shows that in the last two years, investors have been paying a steadily increasing premium for stocks even as economic data exhibited lots of volatility.

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