Less than a week ago, Nissan’s (NSANY) CEO Carlos Ghosn said he thought that industrywide vehicle sales in the US could crater below 15 million this year, back to the level of the early 1990s. Estimates for annualized June sales, meanwhile, are running far below that pace, and are down almost 20% from last year (FT):
Most forecasters and equity analysts expect annualized light-vehicle sales rates to reach barely 13m for June in the world’s largest car market, where last year sales exceeded 16m units.
Credit Suisse on Monday predicted that the sales figures could be the “worst we’ve seen since the early 1990s recession, perhaps as low as the 12m range“.
Our first thought? Expectations are now so low that Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) may finally have bogies they can beat–even with atrocious performance. But any short-term pop from that pleasant surprise would likely be fleeting.
Meanwhile, GM just hit a new 50+ year low and has an equity market cap of only $6.5 billion. The lower the stock goes, the more likely it is that GM will go bankrupt (which, except for the stockholders, wouldn’t be all bad).
General Motors (GM) Needs Cash, Hit With Bankruptcy rumours; Stock Hits 53-Year Low (GM)
General Motors (GM): “A Health Care Benefits Firm That Also Sells Cars At a Loss” (GM, F)
Pitiful Ford (F) Cuts Sales Outlook Again: Truck Sales Falling Off A Cliff (F, GM)