MUNSTER: About That Prediction Of 8 Million iPhone 5s ...

gene munster

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Apple’s stock is down 1% this morning after it announced 5 million in iPhone 5 sales over its opening weekend.One of the reasons Apple’s 5 million in sales is driving the stock down is that it’s below the expectations of analysts like Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster. Munster was calling for 6-10 million in opening weekend sales.

How did he get it wrong? Here’s his explanation:

We believe there are two factors that negatively impacted the number. First, our sales expectation assumed that Apple would include all phones pre-ordered online. We believe that this may have been up to 1 million additional units as units pre-ordered after the middle of the first day were projected to be available in October. Second, we noted 1.25 days of Apple Retail inventory compared to 2.5 days during the 4S launch. Our 8 million estimate assumed full weekend availability and the counting of all online pre-orders. We believe that if supply were not a constraint and Apple included all pre-orders, the launch weekend number would have been closer to 7-8 million, assuming ~1 million October pre-order sales and an additional 1-2 million units at retail.

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