Apple’s decision to release an iPhone 4S, instead of a redesigned iPhone 5, will not have an impact on sales, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.He’s sticking with his sales estimates of 25 million iPhones for the December quarter, and 111 million units for all of 2012.
Despite an initial let down to the iPhone 4S, Munster says, get ready for big lines when Apple starts selling it.
Here are his bullet points for why:
- Aug-11 Survey Shows Significant Pent Up Demand For iPhone 4S. In early Aug-11 we surveyed a small sample of 216 mobile phone users about their phones and carriers. Survey results were positive for Apple’s next-generation iPhone. Among all respondents 64% indicated that they planned to buy an iPhone when they purchase a new phone, without knowing any of the details of the then-unnamed iPhone 4S.
- Many At Verizon & Sprint Are Waiting For iPhone 4S. Today (10/4) Apple announced that Sprint will carry the iPhone 4S on 10/14. And because the iPhone 4 had been available on other carriers for over 6 months when it launched at Verizon in Feb-11, we believe many Verizon subs have been waiting for the iPhone 4S. Of those Verizon subs who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 74% were specifically waiting for the next iPhone. At AT&T, that same metric was 53%. This pent up demand for the next iPhone at Verizon, and to a greater degree at Sprint, should help drive unit sales in the Dec-11 quarter. We remain comfortable with our 25m unit estimate for the Dec-11 quarter.