Apple analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray just put out a note explaining how his estimates on iPad sales were twice what Apple actually sold.Basically, he says he over estimated the online pre-orders.
He is lowering his 2010 iPad sales estimate to 4.3 million units from 5.6 million.
Here’s his explanation in his own words from his note:
- Where We Went Wrong. We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.
- Deja Vu: Wrong On Launch Day, Right On Theme. We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive. With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple’s revenue.
- How the iPad launch compares to iPhone launches. Earlier today Apple announced the sale of 300k iPads on Sat. (4/3), the first day of sales. This is a sell-in unit number, including online pre-orders. Below is a comparison of the iPad launch with previous iPhone launches. The iPad launch (300k) was slightly ahead of launch of the original iPhone (270k on launch weekend). These launches are comparable, as they were both US-only, with similarly priced products. We note that Apple sold 1.12m iPhones in the first full quarter and we now estimate Apple will sell 1.3m iPads in the Jun-10 quarter (essentially a full quarter), also slightly ahead of the original iPhone launch.
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