SURPRISE! Recession Just "Mental", After All: GDP Revised Up To Strong 3.3%

Preliminary Q2 GDP was revised up to a surprisingly strong to 3.3% from 1.9% previously, comfortably exceeding the mean estimate of 2.7%. This marks a strong acceleration from Q1’s growth of 0.9%.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from<br /><strong>exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential<br />structures, and state and local government spending</strong> that were partly offset by negative contributions<br />from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software.  Imports,<br />which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.<br /><br />	The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in<br />imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed<br />investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger<br />decrease in inventory investment


Initial claims, meanwhile came in at 425,000, matching consensus and falling from last week’s 432,000. The solid numbers build on yesterday’s durable goods orders which also beat expectations.

Graph courtesy of


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