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Heads up. It will be a fairly important day for economic data.From Nomura, here’s the key data to watch for.
Payrolls benchmark revision: The Bureau of labour Statistics will release its preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the payroll data series. We expect a downward revision in the neighbourhood of 300k to be announced that will affect monthly payrolls through the year ended March 2011. The final benchmark revision will be issued on 3 February 2012, concurrently with the January 2012 payroll data release.
Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims declined to 423,000 in the week ending 17 September, while the 4-week moving average rose to 421,000. The downward trend in claims has stalled in recent weeks, likely the result of increased layoff announcements.
GDP (Q2 3rd): We expect the BEA to revise slightly higher its 3rd and final estimate of Q2 real GDP from the prior reported annual growth rate of 1.0% to 1.1%. Among incoming data since the release of the second estimate, large upward revisions to June and May construction data was moderately positive to Q2 GDP.
Pending home sales: Pending home sales declined by 1.3% in July and consensus is looking for a further decline of 2.1% in August. The pending home sales index typically has up to a two month lead-time over existing home sales.
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