Yesterday, the BEA announced Q1 GDP climbed just 0.1%.
This afternoon, Wall Street is saying it’s even worse.
Citing weak construction spending data, several firms’ GDP tracking models now show Q1 growth fell into negative territory.
“Residential construction was a bright spot, rising 0.7% on the month and standing 15.2% above year-ago levels,” noted Barclays’ Cooper Howes. “Nonresidential construction fell 0.1%, however, and there were downward revisions to February and January. On the whole, this lowered our GDP tracking estimate three-tenths, to -0.2%.”
Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely cited source for GDP estimates, said its model fell 10 bps to -0.1%, also weaker-than-expected construction spending below BEA assumptions.
And according to Zerohedge, JPMorgan’s model is now also tracking negative growth.
Some analysts say Q2 should prove better. Despite the weak spending, Macroeconomic Advisers made no change to its forecast for 3.6% growth.
And Capital Economics says this morning’s ISM report
points to stronger GDP in the months ahead. “…Even at 54.9 in April, the index points to a rebound in annualised GDP growth to more than 2.5% in the second quarter. We think it could come in even stronger.”
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