Photo: A Gary Shilling & Co.
China’s economy is, “in for a hard landing…this year or next year,” according to Gary Shilling, who spoke at Bloomberg’s China Investment Strategies conference.He doubts the ability of the Chinese government to control the economy, and described its monetary policy as “very crude.”
Shilling said the hard landing scenario would mean GDP growth of 6% or less in China. That’s because the country needs at least 8% growth to accommodate people moving from inland China to its coastal cities, Shilling said.
The result of the slowdown would be the pricking of the global commodities bubble. While that would have a direct impact on the prices of a multitude of commodities, Shilling said it would also hit currencies tied to commodity production, like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar.
Shilling went so far as to describe Australia as a “Chinese colony” saying its role is to dig up raw commodities and ship them off to China.
Because of the amount of speculation present in the global economy on the side of continued Chinese growth, Shilling sees the slowdown there leading to a global downturn.