Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flikr
Here’s a new poll by Patriot Majority USA that shows how much of an effect Gary Johnson could have on Mitt Romney’s vote in potential swing-state New Mexico this November. Craig Varoga, Patriot Majority USA’s president, is a prominent Democratic strategist. There are no details on the breakdown of votes. So take this with a little grain of salt until full details are released. But Johnson cuts in pretty significantly to Romney’s core demographics.
The topline results: Obama 48, Romney 35, Johnson 12.
Few polls have accounted for Johnson as a specific alternative to Obama and Romney. Johnson is the Libertarian Party candidate in the 2012 election and the former Governor of New Mexico.
There are a few significant areas where Romney sees his lead drastically shrink because of the presence of Johnson. Age and gender are particularly significant.
Photo: Patriot Majority USA
Take a peek at this latest Gallup poll, which shows the two candidates have been deadlocked for much of the past two months. In the crosstabs, Obama sees some of his biggest deficits with the 65-plus crowd and with men. He’s down 14 points to Romney among 65-plus-year-olds and down 8 among men.
Here, though, he ends up winning both groups. He wins the 65-plus vote by 5 and with men by 5, too. It’s not them flocking to him — it’s them flocking to Johnson instead of Romney.
Also key: Johnson gets 21 per cent of the Independent vote. That compares with Romney’s 28 per cent. Obama’s is unspecified, but he wins the vote.
This comes on the heels of an NBC-Marist polls Thursday that showed Obama up small percentage points in three swing states, a major gain for Romney. But those did not account for a specific third-party candidate like Johnson.
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