Don’t worry, later today we plan to do a feature on every reason people are sceptical of last Friday’s unemployment report. By our count, people found at least 300-or-so reasons to doubt the veracity of the 10% unemployment number and the 11,000.
In the meantime, Dennis Gartman is the latest to try poking holes in it (via FT Alphaville):
Workers simply have become discouraged and are still pulling themselves out of the job market, thus forcing the participation rate, as it is known, to its lowest level in two decades. Further… and this really does cause us some confusion and casts doubt upon the veracity of Friday’s report… the civilian labour force was actually reported to have fallen when mere demographics… mere arithmetic… said it must increase instead.
We wonder how this can be? Further, there are other anomalies, not the least of which is the continued reliance upon rather faulty seasonal adjustments and an even more faulty “birth/Death” factor, but we shall leave those for another day. The “economic reasons” question and that of the “participation rate” are sufficiently disconcerting for our purposes at the moment to make us just a tad sceptical of the euphoria surrounding Friday’s report. It was a good report. It was a nice report. It was a report consistent with the first few weeks, historically, of an economic rebound, but it was not a report to elicit Hosannas.