Citi analyst Tony Wible is saying that GameStop (GME), which is viewed as a proxy for the gaming industry as a whole, should have a strong second half of the year, contradicting an earlier forecast by a Goldman Sachs analyst.
But Wible has some interesting reasoning for making the claim:
“The movie industry faces an actor’s strike upon expiration of major contracts for the Screen Actor’s Guild (June 30). GME could benefit if consumers turn to video gaming as an alternative form of entertainment once movie content goes stale.”
Two problems we see with this reasoning:
- An actors’ strike looks a lot less certain than the WGA strike, which ended in February.
- We don’t think people turned to video games or the Web because of the TV strike, and we don’t see that happening if there’s a dearth of movies.
Wait. Make that three problems: Even if there’s a strike, there won’t be dearth of movies for a couple years.
That’s because even movies made at light-speed take 18 months or more to make. And Hollywood had already stockpiled movies in advance of the writers’ strike last year. So even if the lots shut down this summer, the studios would have plenty of flicks stacked up to last them through 2009, or beyond.
And if Tony thinks starving actors are going to picket longer than starving writers did, then we would like to sell him some HD-DVDs. We can get him a deal.
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